"Thought" Leaders

Maybe it means that someone thought this person was a leader:

... monetary authorities' chatter about a "little inflation" guarantees that younger Americans will have to pay 1980s-level interest rates on their first homes."

So from Amity Shlaes in Forbes (10/7/13), surely the silliest and least substantive "business" publication in wide circulation. Ms. Shlaes wants "hard money" --paradoxically, so that interest rates can rise. In this, she is in the company of the rentier class, those who believe that, having amassed significant wealth, they should now be paid for having it. Note that the above quote, like pretty much all of what Ms. Shlaes says, is unaccompanied by an argument --it's just an assertion.

There are two things about this column that strike me: First, that Shlaes is worried about inflation; and second, that she is offended that a consensus is emerging in favor of "easier money no matter what direction interest rates take or what history's record suggests we do".

As for inflation; those with whom Shlaes agrees have been warning about hyper-inflation for 5 years. How long must we wait for this dire prediction to come true? Her concern for "history's record" is odd, given her resolute unwillingness to ignore the history of the past half-decade (or, in Japan, the past 2 decades). In much of the developed world, deflation is a greater worry than inflation.

And second, one of the reasons, of course, that a consensus is emerging (to the extent that this is the case) is that the many of those in the Shlaes cohort have slowly recognized that stimulus, including the Fed's Quantitative Easing policy, has not produced inflation.

As for the "1980s-level interest rates" she thinks is facing the next generation, she forgets that few of them appear to be inclined, or able, to purchase a first home. You have to be employed in order to do that.