The Republicans made some tentative moves to reach an accommodation with the Democrats and President Obama today. At day's end, they announced an "encouraging" meeting with the President.
Perhaps the government shutdown, and the prospect of a default, will soon be resolved.
Of course, the fierce fighters of the Right aren't going to give up unconditionally; they're tough, dedicated, take-no-prisoners guys. There will be a hard price for Obama to pay. The Repubs have focused on the one issue that is, above all, raising howls of outrage from the American People, and they won't agree to anything until it is addressed.
They're still working on the slogan. Something along the lines of "Fifty-Four Forty or Fight!"
But no matter what, they demand, absolutely demand, alongside the millions who are marching in the streets, an end to the universally hated 2% tax on medical devices.
Friday, October 11, 2013
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
The Root of the Problem
Paul Krugman, in yesterday's column, points to the basic problem with the Republican Party: it's the Dunning-Kruger effect, which describes the relationship between incompetence and self-confidence. We've all experienced it: the guy at the next table, or on the bus, who loudly proclaims how something works, or what something means, when we know with certainty that he is far off base. Usually, it's someone, a "lay" person, who is spouting off about, say, a key aspect of our own professional life.
I have gotten this from an employee who, hearing that the top marginal tax rate is about to increase, demands that his salary be held at one dollar below the threshold at which the top rate begins to apply. He'll show 'em! Of course, he's making the mistake of assuming that the top rate applies to all the earnings of a person who hits that threshold; either he doesn't know that we have a graduated income tax, or he doesn't know what that means.
In the Dunning-Kruger Effect, the less a person knows, the more he is likely to overestimate his own competence or sophistication. In contrast, the more someone knows, the more he is likely to be uncertain. It's why some very smart people appear unable to give simple, straightforward answers to questions about which they are highly knowledgeable: they are too aware of nuances.
The Republicans, and especially the Tea Party, have seriously emphasized doctrinal rigidity. No surprise, their candidates tend to toe the line on issues. When that happens, someone who thinks deeply is at a disadvantage against someone who does not: the latter guy can confidently and boldly assert the truth. And the "truth" is by definition not nuanced at all: it's obvious, there for anyone to see.
So Republicans elect more and more "true believers" who do not admit to doubt or complexity. And governing the country involves hugely complex matters involving a lot of uncertainty. Their solution? Find someone who can be labeled an "expert, and who says that which you want to hear. There is then no need to delve deeply into any issue. And, by the way, the average person is often attracted to bold assertions of opinion (especially when labeled "fact") from political leaders, because it gives them comfort: these guys must know what they're talking about. This completes the circle, if you will, of incompetence.
Now, if we have the Truth, the other guys must be wrong; and, if they're evidently smart, they must also be devious because they know what they're saying is wrong. It's a short step from that to the notion that they are liars who Hate America. If they are also very different from Us --they are dark-skinned, or have odd names--, well, QED: of course they hate America: they're not even American.
So we come to the notion that the debt default won't really be a problem, because we'll still have enough revenue to pay the basic bills. After all, most of what the government spends is wasted, right? So we'll just get Paul Ryan's budget cuts, all at once. Next stop: prosperity!
So do not expect that the Republicans will limply give in, when confronted with the Disaster: they are cognitively incapable of appreciating that it could possibly be a disaster.
I have gotten this from an employee who, hearing that the top marginal tax rate is about to increase, demands that his salary be held at one dollar below the threshold at which the top rate begins to apply. He'll show 'em! Of course, he's making the mistake of assuming that the top rate applies to all the earnings of a person who hits that threshold; either he doesn't know that we have a graduated income tax, or he doesn't know what that means.
In the Dunning-Kruger Effect, the less a person knows, the more he is likely to overestimate his own competence or sophistication. In contrast, the more someone knows, the more he is likely to be uncertain. It's why some very smart people appear unable to give simple, straightforward answers to questions about which they are highly knowledgeable: they are too aware of nuances.
The Republicans, and especially the Tea Party, have seriously emphasized doctrinal rigidity. No surprise, their candidates tend to toe the line on issues. When that happens, someone who thinks deeply is at a disadvantage against someone who does not: the latter guy can confidently and boldly assert the truth. And the "truth" is by definition not nuanced at all: it's obvious, there for anyone to see.
So Republicans elect more and more "true believers" who do not admit to doubt or complexity. And governing the country involves hugely complex matters involving a lot of uncertainty. Their solution? Find someone who can be labeled an "expert, and who says that which you want to hear. There is then no need to delve deeply into any issue. And, by the way, the average person is often attracted to bold assertions of opinion (especially when labeled "fact") from political leaders, because it gives them comfort: these guys must know what they're talking about. This completes the circle, if you will, of incompetence.
Now, if we have the Truth, the other guys must be wrong; and, if they're evidently smart, they must also be devious because they know what they're saying is wrong. It's a short step from that to the notion that they are liars who Hate America. If they are also very different from Us --they are dark-skinned, or have odd names--, well, QED: of course they hate America: they're not even American.
So we come to the notion that the debt default won't really be a problem, because we'll still have enough revenue to pay the basic bills. After all, most of what the government spends is wasted, right? So we'll just get Paul Ryan's budget cuts, all at once. Next stop: prosperity!
So do not expect that the Republicans will limply give in, when confronted with the Disaster: they are cognitively incapable of appreciating that it could possibly be a disaster.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)